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Demo weeks are fictional accounts. The latest board quotes verified public posts and links each source. Market prints are historical Yahoo Finance prices. Not investment advice. Not affiliated with X or Yahoo. Fictional doom and melt-up book

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DEMO weekend book@yieldyak

Demo call

Yield Yak

@yieldyak · Rates

bearishTLTmedium conviction

Reference TLT ($81.25)

The reopen bid leaks into bonds. TLT 80.11. Cover above 82.06.

  • TLT target 80.11
  • TLT invalidation 82.06

Named tickers: TLT

Posted Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 AM EDT inside the collect window.

TLT 20+ Year Treasury ETFFriday session close, Monday noon, then the official closes
Fri refMon openMon noonWed closeFri close
  • Fri ref81.25
  • Mon open81.72
  • Mon noon81.64
  • Wed close80.46
  • Fri close79.32

Weekend reference is the prior Friday Yahoo Finance regular-session close for SPY, QQQ, DIA, and VIX. Monday's gap uses the regular-session open. Monday noon is the open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar. Wednesday and Friday use the official daily close (4:00 PM ET, or 1:00 PM ET on an early close). A closed session or a close that is not due yet is left blank.

Settled grades

The words do not change. Each settled horizon rescores this call against recorded prints measured from Friday's regular-session close.

  1. Friday close to the open

    Monday gap

    9:30 AM ET

    Mon openTLT($81.72)+0.6%against call

    Badge 4/10 · 37/100

    Rank 15 of 19

    Monday gap, from Friday's regular-session close to the regular-session open: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are +0.77% from Friday's regular-session close, against this bearish call. VIX is +1.01% from Friday's close. That score is WEAK. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape+0.77%against callsigned -0.77% · VIX +1.01%

    • Direction vs tape3/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor6/15
    Open the Monday gap board

  2. Open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar

    Monday noon

    12:00 PM ET

    Mon noonTLT($81.64)+0.5%against call

    Badge 4/10 · 31/100

    Rank 14 of 19

    Monday 12:00 PM ET, the open of the 5-minute bar: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are +1.28% from Friday's regular-session close, against this bearish call. VIX is +0.47% from Friday's close. That score is WEAK. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape+1.28%against callsigned -1.28% · VIX +0.47%

    • Direction vs tape0/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor3/15
    Open the Monday noon board

  3. Same cohort, at the close

    Wed close

    4:00 PM ET

    Wed closeTLT($80.46)−1.0%with call

    Badge 4/10 · 37/100

    Rank 14 of 19

    Wednesday close, same weekend cohort: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are +1.08% from Friday's regular-session close, against this bearish call. VIX is +2.50% from Friday's close. That score is WEAK. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape+1.08%against callsigned -1.08% · VIX +2.50%

    • Direction vs tape0/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor9/15
    Open the Wed close board

  4. Same cohort, final close

    Fri close

    4:00 PM ET

    Fri closeTLT($79.32)−2.4%with call

    Badge 4/10 · 35/100

    Rank 13 of 19

    Friday close, same weekend cohort: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are +1.59% from Friday's regular-session close, against this bearish call. VIX is +0.41% from Friday's close. That score is WEAK. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape+1.59%against callsigned -1.59% · VIX +0.41%

    • Direction vs tape0/50
    • Levels20/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor3/15
    Open the Fri close board