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Demo weeks are fictional accounts. The latest board quotes verified public posts and links each source. Market prints are historical Yahoo Finance prices. Not investment advice. Not affiliated with X or Yahoo. Fictional doom and melt-up book

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Doom versus melt-up@volwidow

Demo call

Vol Widow

@volwidow · Convexity hedge

bearishSPYmedium conviction

Reference SPY ($765.72)

Own the downside convexity. Spot does not need a crash, just a trip through 758.06. Hedge dies above 771.08.

  • SPY target 758.06
  • SPY invalidation 771.08

Named tickers: SPY

Posted Fri, Aug 21, 12:00 AM EDT inside the collect window.

SPY S&P 500 ETFFriday session close, Monday noon, then the official closes
Fri refMon openMon noonWed closeFri close
  • Fri ref765.72
  • Mon open764.78
  • Mon noon764.52
  • Wed close766.08
  • Fri close769.35

Weekend reference is the prior Friday Yahoo Finance regular-session close for SPY, QQQ, DIA, and VIX. Monday's gap uses the regular-session open. Monday noon is the open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar. Wednesday and Friday use the official daily close (4:00 PM ET, or 1:00 PM ET on an early close). A closed session or a close that is not due yet is left blank.

Settled grades

The words do not change. Each settled horizon rescores this call against recorded prints measured from Friday's regular-session close.

  1. Friday close to the open

    Monday gap

    9:30 AM ET

    Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call

    Badge 7/10 · 66/100

    Rank 5 of 19

    Monday gap, from Friday's regular-session close to the regular-session open: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are -0.24% from Friday's regular-session close, with this bearish call. VIX is +5.09% from Friday's close. That score is PROVISIONAL. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape-0.24%with callsigned +0.24% · VIX +5.09%

    • Direction vs tape26/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor12/15
    Open the Monday gap board

  2. Open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar

    Monday noon

    12:00 PM ET

    Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call

    Badge 6/10 · 57/100

    Rank 5 of 19

    Monday 12:00 PM ET, the open of the 5-minute bar: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are -0.20% from Friday's regular-session close, with this bearish call. VIX is +3.83% from Friday's close. That score is PROVISIONAL. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape-0.20%with callsigned +0.20% · VIX +3.83%

    • Direction vs tape20/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor9/15
    Open the Monday noon board

  3. Same cohort, at the close

    Wed close

    4:00 PM ET

    Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat

    Badge 5/10 · 48/100

    Rank 6 of 19

    Wednesday close, same weekend cohort: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are +0.04% from Friday's regular-session close, flat versus this bearish call. VIX is +0.53% from Friday's close. That score is PROVISIONAL. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape+0.04%flat vs callsigned -0.04% · VIX +0.53%

    • Direction vs tape14/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor6/15
    Open the Wed close board

  4. Same cohort, final close

    Fri close

    4:00 PM ET

    Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call

    Badge 4/10 · 34/100

    Rank 14 of 19

    Friday close, same weekend cohort: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are +0.48% from Friday's regular-session close, against this bearish call. VIX is -4.63% from Friday's close. That score is WEAK. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape+0.48%against callsigned -0.48% · VIX -4.63%

    • Direction vs tape6/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor0/15
    Open the Fri close board