Demo cohort

Doom versus melt-up

A demo weekend book: crash and sell-the-open posts beside euphoric melt-up calls. Grades use the Friday, August 21 cash close, Monday's noon print, and the Wednesday and Friday official closes.

Collect Wed, Aug 19, 12:00 PM EDT → Sun, Aug 23, 5:00 PM EDT. Readout week of Aug 24.

Monday regular-session open vs Friday session close

SPY
764.78
-0.12%
DIA
531.83
-0.07%
QQQ
709.66
-0.53%
VIX
15.90
+5.09%

AAPL
311.47
+0.69%
IWM
299.55
-0.14%
MSFT
483.21
-0.01%
NVDA
215.53
+0.38%
TLT
82.49
+0.54%

Monday 12:00 PM ET print vs Friday session close

SPY
764.52
-0.16%
DIA
533.95
+0.33%
QQQ
707.98
-0.77%
VIX
15.71
+3.83%

AAPL
311.68
+0.75%
IWM
298.46
-0.50%
MSFT
489.34
+1.26%
NVDA
210.24
-2.09%
TLT
82.61
+0.68%

Wednesday official close vs Friday session close

SPY
766.08
+0.05%
DIA
534.23
+0.38%
QQQ
711.37
-0.29%
VIX
15.21
+0.53%

AAPL
313.45
+1.33%
IWM
298.93
-0.34%
MSFT
496.37
+2.72%
NVDA
209.66
-2.36%
TLT
83.30
+1.52%

Friday official close vs Friday session close

SPY
769.35
+0.47%
DIA
535.06
+0.53%
QQQ
716.43
+0.42%
VIX
14.43
-4.63%

AAPL
319.70
+3.35%
IWM
295.75
-1.40%
MSFT
513.53
+6.27%
NVDA
217.55
+1.32%
TLT
82.88
+1.01%

Weekend reference is the prior Friday Yahoo Finance regular-session close for SPY, QQQ, DIA, and VIX. Monday's gap uses the regular-session open. Monday noon is the open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar. Wednesday and Friday use the official daily close (4:00 PM ET, or 1:00 PM ET on an early close). A closed session or a close that is not due yet is left blank.

Weekend Noise Index

Share of this cohort tagged panic, crash, or selloff, next to the equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA move from Friday's regular-session close. Descriptive only. Not a signal.

53% panic · 47% melt-up

Engagement-weighted panic share 56%.

Monday gap tape
-0.24%
Monday noon tape
-0.20%
VIX at the open
+5.09%
VIX at noon
+3.83%

Settled grades

Rows are calls that already have a settled grade. Watchlist and viral posts share this board. A horizon stays off the table until its tape prints.

Dividend Druid
@dividenddruid
Buy quality on the flush. Apple holds 306.88 and grinds to 313.06. I leave under 304.71.
bullishAAPL
Reference AAPL ($309.35)
Mon openAAPL($311.47)+0.7%with call
37%WEAK
Mon noonAAPL($311.68)+0.8%with call
41%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeAAPL($313.45)+1.3%with call
49%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeAAPL($319.70)+3.3%with call
70%STRONG
Gap Fade
@gapfade
A Monday gap down gets faded back toward Friday. Target 768.78, resistance 766.87. I bail under 758.06.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call
37%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call
41%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
45%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call
70%STRONG
Call Wall
@callwall
Complacency bid. The panic posts are the fuel. SPY 777.21, invalid under 758.06.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call
38%WEAK
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
42%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call
63%PROVISIONAL
Gamma Goblin
@gammagoblin
Call-wall squeeze into 724.86 if the Sunday reopen is firm. Cut under 706.31.
bullishQQQ
Reference QQQ ($713.44)
Mon openQQQ($709.66)−0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonQQQ($707.98)−0.8%against call
38%WEAK
Wed closeQQQ($711.37)−0.3%against call
42%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeQQQ($716.43)+0.4%with call
63%PROVISIONAL
Hype Spike
@hypespike
Melt-up spike. Weekend doom is the squeeze. QQQ 727.71. Leave it under 704.88.
bullishQQQ
Reference QQQ ($713.44)
Mon openQQQ($709.66)−0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonQQQ($707.98)−0.8%against call
38%WEAK
Wed closeQQQ($711.37)−0.3%against call
42%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeQQQ($716.43)+0.4%with call
63%PROVISIONAL
Nasdaq Nun
@nasdaqnun
Leaders do not die on one weekend. NVDA 221.16 this week. Wrong under 210.43.
bullishNVDA
Reference NVDA ($214.72)
Mon openNVDA($215.53)+0.4%with call
34%WEAK
Mon noonNVDA($210.24)−2.1%against call
24%WEAK
Wed closeNVDA($209.66)−2.4%against call
28%WEAK
Fri closeNVDA($217.55)+1.3%with call
63%PROVISIONAL
Perma Pump
@permapump
Euphoric melt-up. Weekend doom is the fuel. 781.03 is still the upside magnet. I am out only if 754.23 goes.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call
38%WEAK
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
42%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call
63%PROVISIONAL
Smallcap Sam
@smallcapsam
Breadth catch-up. IWM 305.36 if the weekend was already priced. Invalid under 296.36.
bullishIWM
Reference IWM ($299.96)
Mon openIWM($299.55)−0.1%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonIWM($298.46)−0.5%against call
38%WEAK
Wed closeIWM($298.93)−0.3%against call
42%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeIWM($295.75)−1.4%against call
49%PROVISIONAL
Narrative Ned
@narrativened
Feels like they want to buy any weakness. The soft-landing crowd is not leaving.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call
10%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call
14%WEAK
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
18%WEAK
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call
39%WEAK
Doom Scroll
@doomscroll
Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY 746.58 is the crash magnet, 744.28 is the shelf. I cover only if 773.38 sticks.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call
60%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
51%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call
37%WEAK
Doom Siren
@doomsiren
WWIII weekend. Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY crash magnet 742.75, shelf 739.69. Cover only through 774.91.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call
60%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
51%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call
37%WEAK
Futures Fox
@futuresfox
Sellers live above Friday's settle. Cash SPY rejects 768.02 and trades 755.00. Stop 771.85.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call
60%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
51%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call
37%WEAK
Level Lena
@levellena
756.53 is the magnet. I want 753.47 tested as a shelf. The short is dead above 770.31.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call
60%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
51%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call
37%WEAK
Credit Crab
@creditcrab
Credit is quieter than equities admit. Small caps wear it first. IWM 293.96, wrong above 302.96.
bearishIWM
Reference IWM ($299.96)
Mon openIWM($299.55)−0.1%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonIWM($298.46)−0.5%with call
57%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeIWM($298.93)−0.3%with call
48%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeIWM($295.75)−1.4%with call
34%WEAK
Macro Moth
@macromoth
Real yields do the work. Nasdaq gives the bid back toward 697.74. Out above 722.00.
bearishQQQ
Reference QQQ ($713.44)
Mon openQQQ($709.66)−0.5%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonQQQ($707.98)−0.8%with call
57%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeQQQ($711.37)−0.3%with call
48%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeQQQ($716.43)+0.4%against call
34%WEAK
Open Selloff
@openselloff
Selloff spike. The Dow proxy gaps and does not bounce. DIA 521.58. Wrong above 537.54.
bearishDIA
Reference DIA ($532.22)
Mon openDIA($531.83)−0.1%flat
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonDIA($533.95)+0.3%against call
57%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeDIA($534.23)+0.4%against call
48%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeDIA($535.06)+0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Vol Widow
@volwidow
Own the downside convexity. Spot does not need a crash, just a trip through 758.06. Hedge dies above 771.08.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($765.72)
Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call
57%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
48%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Tape Worm
@tapeworm
Supply sits in megacap software. Microsoft 474.54 if the open cannot reclaim. Stop 487.11.
bearishMSFT
Reference MSFT ($483.24)
Mon openMSFT($483.21)0.0%flat
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonMSFT($489.34)+1.3%against call
43%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeMSFT($496.37)+2.7%against call
34%WEAK
Fri closeMSFT($513.53)+6.3%against call
20%WEAK
Yield Yak
@yieldyak
The long bond leaks toward 80.82 before anyone says slowdown. Invalid above 82.87.
bearishTLT
Reference TLT ($82.05)
Mon openTLT($82.49)+0.5%against call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonTLT($82.61)+0.7%against call
57%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeTLT($83.30)+1.5%against call
34%WEAK
Fri closeTLT($82.88)+1.0%against call
20%WEAK

Settled grades for Doom versus melt-up
Account	Call	Mon open	Mon noon	Wed close	Fri close
Dividend Druid@dividenddruid	Buy quality on the flush. Apple holds 306.88 and grinds to 313.06. I leave under 304.71.bullishAAPL Reference AAPL ($309.35)	Mon openAAPL($311.47)+0.7%with call 37%WEAK	Mon noonAAPL($311.68)+0.8%with call 41%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeAAPL($313.45)+1.3%with call 49%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeAAPL($319.70)+3.3%with call 70%STRONG
Gap Fade@gapfade	A Monday gap down gets faded back toward Friday. Target 768.78, resistance 766.87. I bail under 758.06.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call 37%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call 41%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 45%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call 70%STRONG
Call Wall@callwall	Complacency bid. The panic posts are the fuel. SPY 777.21, invalid under 758.06.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call 38%WEAK	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 42%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call 63%PROVISIONAL
Gamma Goblin@gammagoblin	Call-wall squeeze into 724.86 if the Sunday reopen is firm. Cut under 706.31.bullishQQQ Reference QQQ ($713.44)	Mon openQQQ($709.66)−0.5%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonQQQ($707.98)−0.8%against call 38%WEAK	Wed closeQQQ($711.37)−0.3%against call 42%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeQQQ($716.43)+0.4%with call 63%PROVISIONAL
Hype Spike@hypespike	Melt-up spike. Weekend doom is the squeeze. QQQ 727.71. Leave it under 704.88.bullishQQQ Reference QQQ ($713.44)	Mon openQQQ($709.66)−0.5%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonQQQ($707.98)−0.8%against call 38%WEAK	Wed closeQQQ($711.37)−0.3%against call 42%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeQQQ($716.43)+0.4%with call 63%PROVISIONAL
Nasdaq Nun@nasdaqnun	Leaders do not die on one weekend. NVDA 221.16 this week. Wrong under 210.43.bullishNVDA Reference NVDA ($214.72)	Mon openNVDA($215.53)+0.4%with call 34%WEAK	Mon noonNVDA($210.24)−2.1%against call 24%WEAK	Wed closeNVDA($209.66)−2.4%against call 28%WEAK	Fri closeNVDA($217.55)+1.3%with call 63%PROVISIONAL
Perma Pump@permapump	Euphoric melt-up. Weekend doom is the fuel. 781.03 is still the upside magnet. I am out only if 754.23 goes.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call 38%WEAK	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 42%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call 63%PROVISIONAL
Smallcap Sam@smallcapsam	Breadth catch-up. IWM 305.36 if the weekend was already priced. Invalid under 296.36.bullishIWM Reference IWM ($299.96)	Mon openIWM($299.55)−0.1%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonIWM($298.46)−0.5%against call 38%WEAK	Wed closeIWM($298.93)−0.3%against call 42%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeIWM($295.75)−1.4%against call 49%PROVISIONAL
Narrative Ned@narrativened	Feels like they want to buy any weakness. The soft-landing crowd is not leaving.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%against call 10%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%against call 14%WEAK	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 18%WEAK	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%with call 39%WEAK
Doom Scroll@doomscroll	Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY 746.58 is the crash magnet, 744.28 is the shelf. I cover only if 773.38 sticks.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call 60%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 51%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call 37%WEAK
Doom Siren@doomsiren	WWIII weekend. Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY crash magnet 742.75, shelf 739.69. Cover only through 774.91.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call 60%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 51%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call 37%WEAK
Futures Fox@futuresfox	Sellers live above Friday's settle. Cash SPY rejects 768.02 and trades 755.00. Stop 771.85.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call 60%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 51%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call 37%WEAK
Level Lena@levellena	756.53 is the magnet. I want 753.47 tested as a shelf. The short is dead above 770.31.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call 60%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 51%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call 37%WEAK
Credit Crab@creditcrab	Credit is quieter than equities admit. Small caps wear it first. IWM 293.96, wrong above 302.96.bearishIWM Reference IWM ($299.96)	Mon openIWM($299.55)−0.1%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonIWM($298.46)−0.5%with call 57%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeIWM($298.93)−0.3%with call 48%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeIWM($295.75)−1.4%with call 34%WEAK
Macro Moth@macromoth	Real yields do the work. Nasdaq gives the bid back toward 697.74. Out above 722.00.bearishQQQ Reference QQQ ($713.44)	Mon openQQQ($709.66)−0.5%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonQQQ($707.98)−0.8%with call 57%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeQQQ($711.37)−0.3%with call 48%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeQQQ($716.43)+0.4%against call 34%WEAK
Open Selloff@openselloff	Selloff spike. The Dow proxy gaps and does not bounce. DIA 521.58. Wrong above 537.54.bearishDIA Reference DIA ($532.22)	Mon openDIA($531.83)−0.1%flat 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonDIA($533.95)+0.3%against call 57%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeDIA($534.23)+0.4%against call 48%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeDIA($535.06)+0.5%against call 34%WEAK
Vol Widow@volwidow	Own the downside convexity. Spot does not need a crash, just a trip through 758.06. Hedge dies above 771.08.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($765.72)	Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call 57%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat 48%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call 34%WEAK
Tape Worm@tapeworm	Supply sits in megacap software. Microsoft 474.54 if the open cannot reclaim. Stop 487.11.bearishMSFT Reference MSFT ($483.24)	Mon openMSFT($483.21)0.0%flat 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonMSFT($489.34)+1.3%against call 43%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeMSFT($496.37)+2.7%against call 34%WEAK	Fri closeMSFT($513.53)+6.3%against call 20%WEAK
Yield Yak@yieldyak	The long bond leaks toward 80.82 before anyone says slowdown. Invalid above 82.87.bearishTLT Reference TLT ($82.05)	Mon openTLT($82.49)+0.5%against call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonTLT($82.61)+0.7%against call 57%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeTLT($83.30)+1.5%against call 34%WEAK	Fri closeTLT($82.88)+1.0%against call 20%WEAK