Demo watchlist account · rank 11 of 15 in this bucket

Vol Widow

@volwidow · Convexity hedge

Demo account. Hedges first, direction second.

Average: 44.6/100
Hit rate: +61%
STRONG rate: +28%
WEAK rate: +28%
Graded calls: 5

Badge 5/10 · 44.6/100

Rank 11 of 15

The card score is the rounded average of the furthest settled grade on each call. Hit rate, STRONG rate, and WEAK rate use settled grades only. Best settled grade 74/100. Worst 17/100.

DEMO weekend book

Settled grades only. Horizons still waiting on the tape are not on this card.

bearishQQQ
Keep the hedge on. QQQ 715.68 is enough to pay for it. Off above 730.11.
Reference QQQ ($721.45)
1. Mon openQQQ($727.89)+0.9%against call
  37/100
  Badge 4/10
  WEAK
2. Mon noonQQQ($737.15)+2.2%against call
  17/100
  Badge 2/10
  WEAK
3. Wed closeQQQ($741.21)+2.7%against call
  23/100
  Badge 3/10
  WEAK
4. Fri closeQQQ($744.50)+3.2%against call
  17/100
  Badge 2/10
  WEAK

Same noise, next week

Settled grades only. Horizons still waiting on the tape are not on this card.

bearishQQQ
Hedge the grind. QQQ 706.30 pays for the puts. Hedge off above 722.03.
Reference QQQ ($714.88)
1. Mon openQQQ($703.33)−1.6%with call
  81/100
  Badge 9/10
  STRONG
2. Mon noonQQQ($709.79)−0.7%with call
  66/100
  Badge 7/10
  PROVISIONAL
3. Wed closeQQQ($704.72)−1.4%with call
  89/100
  Badge 9/10
  STRONG
4. Fri closeQQQ($721.45)+0.9%against call
  54/100
  Badge 6/10
  PROVISIONAL

Weekend doom

Settled grades only. Closed sessions are not on this card.

bearishSPY
Own the crash. Spot to 760.95 pays for the weekend panic. Hedge dies above 777.89.
Reference SPY ($770.19)
1. Wed closeSPY($762.40)−1.0%with call
  85/100
  Badge 9/10
  STRONG
2. Fri closeSPY($764.29)−0.8%with call
  74/100
  Badge 8/10
  STRONG

Pending settle · 2 horizons are not graded: the market was closed for Labor Day.

Panic with a pin

Settled grades only. Horizons still waiting on the tape are not on this card.

bearishSPY
Realized stays quiet, but a drift under 760.12 pays the hedge. Stop 775.50.
Reference SPY ($769.35)
1. Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call
  66/100
  Badge 7/10
  PROVISIONAL
2. Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call
  66/100
  Badge 7/10
  PROVISIONAL
3. Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call
  74/100
  Badge 8/10
  STRONG
4. Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call
  44/100
  Badge 5/10
  PROVISIONAL

Doom versus melt-up

Settled grades only. Horizons still waiting on the tape are not on this card.

bearishSPY
Own the downside convexity. Spot does not need a crash, just a trip through 758.06. Hedge dies above 771.08.
Reference SPY ($765.72)
1. Mon openSPY($764.78)−0.1%with call
  66/100
  Badge 7/10
  PROVISIONAL
2. Mon noonSPY($764.52)−0.2%with call
  57/100
  Badge 6/10
  PROVISIONAL
3. Wed closeSPY($766.08)0.0%flat
  48/100
  Badge 5/10
  PROVISIONAL
4. Fri closeSPY($769.35)+0.5%against call
  34/100
  Badge 4/10
  WEAK