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Demo weeks are fictional accounts. The latest board quotes verified public posts and links each source. Market prints are historical Yahoo Finance prices. Not investment advice. Not affiliated with X or Yahoo. Fictional doom and melt-up book

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Panic with a pin@volwidow

Demo call

Vol Widow

@volwidow · Convexity hedge

bearishSPYlow conviction

Reference SPY ($769.35)

Realized stays quiet, but a drift under 760.12 pays the hedge. Stop 775.50.

  • SPY target 760.12
  • SPY invalidation 775.50

Named tickers: SPY

Posted Fri, Aug 28, 12:00 AM EDT inside the collect window.

SPY S&P 500 ETFFriday session close, Monday noon, then the official closes
Fri refMon openMon noonWed closeFri close
  • Fri ref769.35
  • Mon open767.33
  • Mon noon765.42
  • Wed close765.16
  • Fri close770.19

Weekend reference is the prior Friday Yahoo Finance regular-session close for SPY, QQQ, DIA, and VIX. Monday's gap uses the regular-session open. Monday noon is the open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar. Wednesday and Friday use the official daily close (4:00 PM ET, or 1:00 PM ET on an early close). A closed session or a close that is not due yet is left blank.

Settled grades

The words do not change. Each settled horizon rescores this call against recorded prints measured from Friday's regular-session close.

  1. Friday close to the open

    Monday gap

    9:30 AM ET

    Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call

    Badge 7/10 · 66/100

    Rank 4 of 19

    Monday gap, from Friday's regular-session close to the regular-session open: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are -0.24% from Friday's regular-session close, with this bearish call. VIX is +5.61% from Friday's close. That score is PROVISIONAL. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape-0.24%with callsigned +0.24% · VIX +5.61%

    • Direction vs tape26/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor12/15
    Open the Monday gap board

  2. Open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar

    Monday noon

    12:00 PM ET

    Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call

    Badge 7/10 · 66/100

    Rank 4 of 19

    Monday 12:00 PM ET, the open of the 5-minute bar: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are -0.49% from Friday's regular-session close, with this bearish call. VIX is +5.68% from Friday's close. That score is PROVISIONAL. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape-0.49%with callsigned +0.49% · VIX +5.68%

    • Direction vs tape26/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor12/15
    Open the Monday noon board

  3. Same cohort, at the close

    Wed close

    4:00 PM ET

    Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call

    Badge 8/10 · 74/100

    Rank 4 of 19

    Wednesday close, same weekend cohort: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are -0.79% from Friday's regular-session close, with this bearish call. VIX is +5.34% from Friday's close. That score is STRONG. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape-0.79%with callsigned +0.79% · VIX +5.34%

    • Direction vs tape34/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor12/15
    Open the Wed close board

  4. Same cohort, final close

    Fri close

    4:00 PM ET

    Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call

    Badge 5/10 · 44/100

    Rank 13 of 19

    Friday close, same weekend cohort: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are +0.09% from Friday's regular-session close, against this bearish call. VIX is +0.69% from Friday's close. That score is PROVISIONAL. This is a scorecard, not a signal.

    Tape+0.09%against callsigned -0.09% · VIX +0.69%

    • Direction vs tape10/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor6/15
    Open the Fri close board