Demo cohort

Panic with a pin

Demo weekend posts that mix crash calls with melt-up calls and tight levels. Monday noon and the Wednesday and Friday official closes are the recorded tape.

Collect Wed, Aug 26, 12:00 PM EDT → Sun, Aug 30, 5:00 PM EDT. Readout week of Aug 31.

Monday regular-session open vs Friday session close

SPY
767.33
-0.26%
DIA
533.56
-0.28%
QQQ
715.17
-0.18%
VIX
15.24
+5.61%

AAPL
319.60
-0.03%
IWM
295.09
-0.22%
MSFT
510.38
-0.61%
NVDA
218.87
+0.61%
TLT
82.47
-0.49%

Monday 12:00 PM ET print vs Friday session close

SPY
765.42
-0.51%
DIA
531.71
-0.63%
QQQ
713.97
-0.34%
VIX
15.25
+5.68%

AAPL
314.67
-1.57%
IWM
293.16
-0.88%
MSFT
509.80
-0.73%
NVDA
219.50
+0.90%
TLT
82.25
-0.75%

Wednesday official close vs Friday session close

SPY
765.16
-0.54%
DIA
530.62
-0.83%
QQQ
709.24
-1.00%
VIX
15.20
+5.34%

AAPL
324.96
+1.65%
IWM
294.01
-0.59%
MSFT
496.82
-3.25%
NVDA
224.41
+3.15%
TLT
81.95
-1.12%

Friday official close vs Friday session close

SPY
770.19
+0.11%
DIA
534.08
-0.18%
QQQ
718.96
+0.35%
VIX
14.53
+0.69%

AAPL
319.97
+0.08%
IWM
296.01
+0.09%
MSFT
499.70
-2.69%
NVDA
230.36
+5.89%
TLT
82.21
-0.81%

Weekend reference is the prior Friday Yahoo Finance regular-session close for SPY, QQQ, DIA, and VIX. Monday's gap uses the regular-session open. Monday noon is the open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar. Wednesday and Friday use the official daily close (4:00 PM ET, or 1:00 PM ET on an early close). A closed session or a close that is not due yet is left blank.

Weekend Noise Index

Share of this cohort tagged panic, crash, or selloff, next to the equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA move from Friday's regular-session close. Descriptive only. Not a signal.

47% panic · 53% melt-up

Engagement-weighted panic share 56%.

Monday gap tape
-0.24%
Monday noon tape
-0.49%
VIX at the open
+5.61%
VIX at noon
+5.68%

Settled grades

Rows are calls that already have a settled grade. Watchlist and viral posts share this board. A horizon stays off the table until its tape prints.

Nasdaq Nun
@nasdaqnun
NVDA bases and pushes 222.99. Leave it under 213.63.
bullishNVDA
Reference NVDA ($217.55)
Mon openNVDA($218.87)+0.6%with call
34%WEAK
Mon noonNVDA($219.50)+0.9%with call
34%WEAK
Wed closeNVDA($224.41)+3.2%with call
35%WEAK
Fri closeNVDA($230.36)+5.9%with call
52%PROVISIONAL
Dividend Druid
@dividenddruid
Apple respects 317.78 and tags 322.90. I leave the add under 315.86.
bullishAAPL
Reference AAPL ($319.70)
Mon openAAPL($319.60)0.0%flat
37%WEAK
Mon noonAAPL($314.67)−1.6%against call
23%WEAK
Wed closeAAPL($324.96)+1.6%with call
38%WEAK
Fri closeAAPL($319.97)+0.1%with call
51%PROVISIONAL
Level Lena
@levellena
Pin just over Friday. Long against 767.81, resistance 773.20, target a tag of 772.43. Out under 764.73.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call
37%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call
37%WEAK
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call
51%PROVISIONAL
Smallcap Sam
@smallcapsam
IWM holds 293.98 and squeezes toward 299.89. Invalid under 292.20.
bullishIWM
Reference IWM ($295.75)
Mon openIWM($295.09)−0.2%against call
37%WEAK
Mon noonIWM($293.16)−0.9%against call
37%WEAK
Wed closeIWM($294.01)−0.6%against call
34%WEAK
Fri closeIWM($296.01)+0.1%with call
51%PROVISIONAL
Call Wall
@callwall
Complacency bid. The panic posts are the fuel. SPY 780.89, invalid under 761.66.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call
31%WEAK
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call
48%PROVISIONAL
Gamma Goblin
@gammagoblin
Gamma pins, then releases higher toward 778.58. I am out under 763.20.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call
31%WEAK
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call
48%PROVISIONAL
Hype Spike
@hypespike
Melt-up spike. Weekend doom is the squeeze. QQQ 730.76. Leave it under 707.83.
bullishQQQ
Reference QQQ ($716.43)
Mon openQQQ($715.17)−0.2%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonQQQ($713.97)−0.3%against call
34%WEAK
Wed closeQQQ($709.24)−1.0%against call
31%WEAK
Fri closeQQQ($718.96)+0.4%with call
48%PROVISIONAL
Perma Pump
@permapump
Melt-up after the quiet posts. 784.74 is still the number. I am wrong under 755.50.
bullishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call
31%WEAK
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call
48%PROVISIONAL
Yield Yak
@yieldyak
Yields stall here. TLT back to 83.87. Out if 82.05 breaks.
bullishTLT
Reference TLT ($82.88)
Mon openTLT($82.47)−0.5%against call
34%WEAK
Mon noonTLT($82.25)−0.8%against call
34%WEAK
Wed closeTLT($81.95)−1.1%against call
17%WEAK
Fri closeTLT($82.21)−0.8%against call
48%PROVISIONAL
Doom Siren
@doomsiren
WWIII weekend. Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY crash magnet 746.27, shelf 743.19. Cover only through 778.58.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call
77%STRONG
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call
47%PROVISIONAL
Futures Fox
@futuresfox
Fail at 771.66 and rotate back to 766.27. This is not a breakdown call. Stop 773.97.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call
73%STRONG
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call
81%STRONG
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call
47%PROVISIONAL
Gap Fade
@gapfade
Fade a Monday pop back to 715.00 on QQQ. Resistance 719.30. Wrong above 722.16.
bearishQQQ
Reference QQQ ($716.43)
Mon openQQQ($715.17)−0.2%with call
69%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonQQQ($713.97)−0.3%with call
73%STRONG
Wed closeQQQ($709.24)−1.0%with call
81%STRONG
Fri closeQQQ($718.96)+0.4%against call
47%PROVISIONAL
Credit Crab
@creditcrab
No credit stress, but I do not want small-cap beta. 291.02 if it slips. Stop 298.71.
bearishIWM
Reference IWM ($295.75)
Mon openIWM($295.09)−0.2%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonIWM($293.16)−0.9%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeIWM($294.01)−0.6%with call
74%STRONG
Fri closeIWM($296.01)+0.1%against call
44%PROVISIONAL
Doom Scroll
@doomscroll
This calm is the crash setup. 746.27 is in play. I am wrong above 778.58.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call
74%STRONG
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call
44%PROVISIONAL
Macro Moth
@macromoth
Leadership rolls. 702.10 on QQQ if the range breaks down. Invalid above 725.03.
bearishQQQ
Reference QQQ ($716.43)
Mon openQQQ($715.17)−0.2%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonQQQ($713.97)−0.3%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeQQQ($709.24)−1.0%with call
74%STRONG
Fri closeQQQ($718.96)+0.4%against call
44%PROVISIONAL
Open Selloff
@openselloff
Selloff spike. The Dow proxy gaps and does not bounce. DIA 524.36. Wrong above 540.41.
bearishDIA
Reference DIA ($535.06)
Mon openDIA($533.56)−0.3%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonDIA($531.71)−0.6%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeDIA($530.62)−0.8%with call
74%STRONG
Fri closeDIA($534.08)−0.2%with call
44%PROVISIONAL
Vol Widow
@volwidow
Realized stays quiet, but a drift under 760.12 pays the hedge. Stop 775.50.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call
66%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call
74%STRONG
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call
44%PROVISIONAL
Tape Worm
@tapeworm
Microsoft is a 516.61 magnet. Long into that print, out through 508.39. Resistance sits at 517.64.
bullishMSFT
Reference MSFT ($513.53)
Mon openMSFT($510.38)−0.6%against call
37%WEAK
Mon noonMSFT($509.80)−0.7%against call
37%WEAK
Wed closeMSFT($496.82)−3.3%against call
20%WEAK
Fri closeMSFT($499.70)−2.7%against call
37%WEAK
Narrative Ned
@narrativened
Something about this tape feels tired. I would not chase strength.
bearishSPY
Reference SPY ($769.35)
Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call
42%PROVISIONAL
Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call
42%PROVISIONAL
Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call
50%PROVISIONAL
Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call
20%WEAK

Settled grades for Panic with a pin
Account	Call	Mon open	Mon noon	Wed close	Fri close
Nasdaq Nun@nasdaqnun	NVDA bases and pushes 222.99. Leave it under 213.63.bullishNVDA Reference NVDA ($217.55)	Mon openNVDA($218.87)+0.6%with call 34%WEAK	Mon noonNVDA($219.50)+0.9%with call 34%WEAK	Wed closeNVDA($224.41)+3.2%with call 35%WEAK	Fri closeNVDA($230.36)+5.9%with call 52%PROVISIONAL
Dividend Druid@dividenddruid	Apple respects 317.78 and tags 322.90. I leave the add under 315.86.bullishAAPL Reference AAPL ($319.70)	Mon openAAPL($319.60)0.0%flat 37%WEAK	Mon noonAAPL($314.67)−1.6%against call 23%WEAK	Wed closeAAPL($324.96)+1.6%with call 38%WEAK	Fri closeAAPL($319.97)+0.1%with call 51%PROVISIONAL
Level Lena@levellena	Pin just over Friday. Long against 767.81, resistance 773.20, target a tag of 772.43. Out under 764.73.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call 37%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call 37%WEAK	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call 34%WEAK	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call 51%PROVISIONAL
Smallcap Sam@smallcapsam	IWM holds 293.98 and squeezes toward 299.89. Invalid under 292.20.bullishIWM Reference IWM ($295.75)	Mon openIWM($295.09)−0.2%against call 37%WEAK	Mon noonIWM($293.16)−0.9%against call 37%WEAK	Wed closeIWM($294.01)−0.6%against call 34%WEAK	Fri closeIWM($296.01)+0.1%with call 51%PROVISIONAL
Call Wall@callwall	Complacency bid. The panic posts are the fuel. SPY 780.89, invalid under 761.66.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call 34%WEAK	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call 31%WEAK	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call 48%PROVISIONAL
Gamma Goblin@gammagoblin	Gamma pins, then releases higher toward 778.58. I am out under 763.20.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call 34%WEAK	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call 31%WEAK	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call 48%PROVISIONAL
Hype Spike@hypespike	Melt-up spike. Weekend doom is the squeeze. QQQ 730.76. Leave it under 707.83.bullishQQQ Reference QQQ ($716.43)	Mon openQQQ($715.17)−0.2%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonQQQ($713.97)−0.3%against call 34%WEAK	Wed closeQQQ($709.24)−1.0%against call 31%WEAK	Fri closeQQQ($718.96)+0.4%with call 48%PROVISIONAL
Perma Pump@permapump	Melt-up after the quiet posts. 784.74 is still the number. I am wrong under 755.50.bullishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%against call 34%WEAK	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%against call 31%WEAK	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%with call 48%PROVISIONAL
Yield Yak@yieldyak	Yields stall here. TLT back to 83.87. Out if 82.05 breaks.bullishTLT Reference TLT ($82.88)	Mon openTLT($82.47)−0.5%against call 34%WEAK	Mon noonTLT($82.25)−0.8%against call 34%WEAK	Wed closeTLT($81.95)−1.1%against call 17%WEAK	Fri closeTLT($82.21)−0.8%against call 48%PROVISIONAL
Doom Siren@doomsiren	WWIII weekend. Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY crash magnet 746.27, shelf 743.19. Cover only through 778.58.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call 77%STRONG	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call 47%PROVISIONAL
Futures Fox@futuresfox	Fail at 771.66 and rotate back to 766.27. This is not a breakdown call. Stop 773.97.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call 73%STRONG	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call 81%STRONG	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call 47%PROVISIONAL
Gap Fade@gapfade	Fade a Monday pop back to 715.00 on QQQ. Resistance 719.30. Wrong above 722.16.bearishQQQ Reference QQQ ($716.43)	Mon openQQQ($715.17)−0.2%with call 69%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonQQQ($713.97)−0.3%with call 73%STRONG	Wed closeQQQ($709.24)−1.0%with call 81%STRONG	Fri closeQQQ($718.96)+0.4%against call 47%PROVISIONAL
Credit Crab@creditcrab	No credit stress, but I do not want small-cap beta. 291.02 if it slips. Stop 298.71.bearishIWM Reference IWM ($295.75)	Mon openIWM($295.09)−0.2%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonIWM($293.16)−0.9%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeIWM($294.01)−0.6%with call 74%STRONG	Fri closeIWM($296.01)+0.1%against call 44%PROVISIONAL
Doom Scroll@doomscroll	This calm is the crash setup. 746.27 is in play. I am wrong above 778.58.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call 74%STRONG	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call 44%PROVISIONAL
Macro Moth@macromoth	Leadership rolls. 702.10 on QQQ if the range breaks down. Invalid above 725.03.bearishQQQ Reference QQQ ($716.43)	Mon openQQQ($715.17)−0.2%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonQQQ($713.97)−0.3%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeQQQ($709.24)−1.0%with call 74%STRONG	Fri closeQQQ($718.96)+0.4%against call 44%PROVISIONAL
Open Selloff@openselloff	Selloff spike. The Dow proxy gaps and does not bounce. DIA 524.36. Wrong above 540.41.bearishDIA Reference DIA ($535.06)	Mon openDIA($533.56)−0.3%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonDIA($531.71)−0.6%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeDIA($530.62)−0.8%with call 74%STRONG	Fri closeDIA($534.08)−0.2%with call 44%PROVISIONAL
Vol Widow@volwidow	Realized stays quiet, but a drift under 760.12 pays the hedge. Stop 775.50.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call 66%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call 74%STRONG	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call 44%PROVISIONAL
Tape Worm@tapeworm	Microsoft is a 516.61 magnet. Long into that print, out through 508.39. Resistance sits at 517.64.bullishMSFT Reference MSFT ($513.53)	Mon openMSFT($510.38)−0.6%against call 37%WEAK	Mon noonMSFT($509.80)−0.7%against call 37%WEAK	Wed closeMSFT($496.82)−3.3%against call 20%WEAK	Fri closeMSFT($499.70)−2.7%against call 37%WEAK
Narrative Ned@narrativened	Something about this tape feels tired. I would not chase strength.bearishSPY Reference SPY ($769.35)	Mon openSPY($767.33)−0.3%with call 42%PROVISIONAL	Mon noonSPY($765.42)−0.5%with call 42%PROVISIONAL	Wed closeSPY($765.16)−0.5%with call 50%PROVISIONAL	Fri closeSPY($770.19)+0.1%against call 20%WEAK